Silicon Metal Prices Stagnant and Consolidating, Polysilicon Spot Transactions Limited [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM December 24:

Silicon coal

price: Non-caking silicon coal price in Xinjiang was raised by 30 yuan/mt WoW, with the average price currently at 855 yuan/mt, while prices in other regions were largely stable.

Supply: Coal washing plants maintained production schedules based on sales, but operating rates remained low amid weak demand.

Demand: Operating rates at downstream silicon plants were basically stable WoW, but overall raw material demand release was limited as most downstream silicon plants in north China completed winter silicon coal inventory stocking plans.

Silicon metal

price: Spot silicon metal prices fluctuated rangebound. Oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was quoted at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt yesterday, while #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt. Futures held up well in the past two days, with the most-traded contract closing at 8,780 yuan/mt yesterday, up 185 yuan/mt from the previous day. Silicon enterprises' offers were largely stable, while trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market raised absolute price offers as futures rose. Downstream buyers mainly watched the market and made purchases as needed, with transaction atmosphere remaining thin.

Production:

Operating rates at silicon enterprises were basically stable recently, while silicon metal production schedules saw minor fluctuations WoW, with weekly total supply changing limitedly.

Inventory:

Social inventory: SMM statistics showed social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 553,000 mt on December 18, down 8,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Silicone

price

DMC: Transaction price was 13,500-13,700 yuan/mt yesterday, flat WoW. Domestic DMC market upstream prices ran steadily this week, with some downstream customers remaining cautious in procurement amid existing raw material inventory support.

D4: Offers were 13,500-14,200 yuan/mt yesterday, flat WoW.

107 silicone rubber: Offers were 14,000-14,300 yuan/mt yesterday, flat WoW.

Silicone gum: Offers were 14,000-14,500 yuan/mt yesterday, flat WoW.

Silicone oil: Offers were 14,800-15,200 yuan/mt yesterday, down 100 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

Recently, overall operating rates at monomer enterprises were around 70% amid emission reduction policy implementation.

Inventory:

Monomer enterprise inventory levels remained basically stable this week.

Polysilicon

price:

Polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon was offered at 49.7-55 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 49-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index at 52.06 yuan/kg. Market prices remained stable, while downstream price push-up momentum was uncertain, new contract signings nearly halted, and downstream buyers temporarily refused excessively high polysilicon prices. Approaching year-end, upstream and downstream players adopted a wait-and-see stance for the time being.

Production:

China's polysilicon production in December was projected at 113,500 mt, mainly due to production cuts in Inner Mongolia, with further production cut plans likely. Some reduction plans were observed in December. Production was expected to decline further MoM.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory increased again this week. The market remained chaotic, with crystal pulling enterprises showing significant resistance to high-priced resources. Market transactions were limited, leading to continued inventory buildup.

Wafer

Price

The market price for 18X wafers was 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece, for 210RN wafers 1.25-1.35 yuan/piece, and for 210N wafers 1.5-1.55 yuan/piece. Transactions at higher wafer prices occurred, but the overall volume remained relatively small. Wafer enterprises were unwilling to sell at low prices, resulting in a situation of "high prices but low volume" and intensified bargaining.

Production

Wafer enterprises implemented significant production cuts in December, with a reduction of about 16%, pushing production to a new low for the year. Similar situations were seen in multiple downstream segments. Recently, two enterprises gradually raised production, reasonably adjusted inventory structures, and strictly implemented production quotas.

Inventory

Wafer enterprise inventories shifted to destocking. After significant production cuts, supply became slightly tight. Solar cell plants began stockpiling and restocking. Total wafer inventory was now near a reasonable level.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

The current domestic price for inner-layer sand was 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, for middle-layer sand 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and for outer-layer sand 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt. Recently, the price trend for domestic sand stabilized, while negotiations for imported sand remained stagnant. A price decline was expected.

Production

Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises implemented relatively large production cuts in December, partly due to seasonal factors and partly because crucible supply aligned with reduced wafer production schedules, leading to weaker demand. Quartz sand enterprises adjusted production appropriately to match supply-demand.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory levels increased slightly, while purchasing volume by crucible enterprises decreased.

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